In summary
The California Legislature is poised to see more new members than at any time in the past 10 years, but the election is unlikely to lead to any major changes in the Capitol’s partisan makeup.
While things were looking poorly for Democrats nationally, early vote totals in California showed the Democratic Party poised to keep its supermajority in the Legislature.
“Overall, the balance of power is not going to shift in either house,” said veteran lobbyist Chris Micheli. “Democrats will continue to maintain a super duper majority in both houses — the only potential scenario is perhaps gaining a seat or two in each house and adding to that super duper majority status.”
Should the vote totals hold, Mike Gatto, a former Democratic lawmaker from Los Angeles cautioned members of his party not to consider it an edict from the California electorate to embrace far-left policies in response to a possible return to the White House for Donald Trump.
Gatto noted that voters appear to have signaled through the state’s ballot initiatives a more moderate platform. They overwhelmingly passed a measure, which progressives opposed, that increases sentences for certain crimes; and early vote totals show them rejecting progressive-sponsored initiatives that would prohibit forced labor in prisons and one that would expand rent control.
“I think it would be wise for California Democrats to try to moderate the agenda a little bit,” Gatto said.
Experts also cautioned that California’s notoriously long ballot-counting process could take weeks to conclude, and some close legislatives races could still tip the Republicans’ way.
“We may not know the results of some of these races perhaps even for a few weeks, unfortunately, Micheli said Tuesday night, citing the 2022 example where Christy Holstege went through the Assembly’s new member orientation only to lose by 85 votes to Greg Wallis, the current Republican incumbent.
Hostege ran again this year, and early results Tuesday showed her in the lead.
Going into tonight’s election, insiders from both parties said the supermajority that Democrats have held since 2012 was never really in jeopardy, despite 36 of 120 lawmakers in the Senate and Assembly leaving office due to term limits or other reasons (including a handful of Assemblymembers running for Senate).
The Legislature was also expected to reach gender parity — the same percentage of women in the Assembly and Senate as in the state — for the first time in California’s history.
The 2025 Legislative session could start with more new lawmakers than it’s had since 2012, when 44 new members took office, said Alex Vassar, a legislative historian at the California State Library. This large class of freshmen lawmakers will have to confront California’s challenges including state budget woes, crime, homelessness, climate change and the rising cost of living.
Here are the hot races CalMatters is following that have the potential to shake up the Legislature’s partisan makeup.
California Senate
There are 40 senators, currently made up of 31 Democrats and nine Republicans. The GOP would need to pick up five seats to break up the supermajority. Half of the Senate’s seats are up for election this year, though many of them are safe districts where the incumbent or the local majority party’s favorite is all but certain to win. One race puts two Republicans against each other, and three races have Democrats running against each other.
These are the three close races that could change the partisan makeup of the Senate.
Incumbent Republican Sen. Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh, first elected in 2020, is in a close race with Lisa Middleton, a Democrat, in this purple Southern California district that includes Joshua Tree National Park and the cities of Palm Springs and Big Bear Lake. Democrats are hopeful the surge in enthusiasm for Kamala Harris could carry Middleton to victory in a district that has become more blue since 2020.
Voter registration: 36.6% Democrat, 35.8% Republican, 18.7% no party preference
Campaign cash: Middleton: $2.2 million; Ochoa Bogh: $2 million.
Democrat Kipp Mueller, a workers rights attorney, and Suzette Martinez Valladares, a former Republican Assemblymember, are seeking termed-out Republican Sen. Scott Wilk’s seat, representing the Lancaster area. Martinez Valladares came out 3.4% ahead of Mueller in the primary. In response, Democrats have piled on campaign cash to boost Mueller’s chances.
Voter registration: 39.0% Democrat, 31.8% Republican, 21.5% no party preference.
Campaign cash: Mueller: $6.6 million; Martinez Valladares: $2.4 million.
Fullerton incumbent Democratic Sen. Josh Newman, who was once recalled from office, is facing Steven Choi, a Republican former Assemblymember. Newman angered the deep-pocketed and typically Democratic-supportive American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees for sponsoring a gambling bill the union opposed and for not supporting a constitutional amendment for UC workers. One of the union’s local affiliates has spent at least $870,000 opposing Newman, though he still has a massive fundraising lead over Choi.
Voter registration: 36.4% Democrat, 33.4% Republican, 24.1% no party preference.
Campaign cash: Newman: $6.5 million; Choi: $853,271.
California Assembly
There are 80 Assemblymembers, currently made up of 62 Democrats and 18 Republicans.
Members of the Assembly run every two years, so each seat is up for election this year. Republicans would need to pick up nine seats to break the Democrats’ supermajority. Most seats aren’t likely to flip parties. There are five races in which Republicans are running against each other and eight where two Democrats are facing off.
In what’s arguably the strangest scenario, Kern County Republican Assemblymember Vince Fong won a special election to replace U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, but Fong remains on the ballot for his former Assembly seat. Will he beat Republican Ken Weir, the only other candidate on the ballot, for a seat that Fong no longer wants? Should Fong get the most votes, Gov. Gavin Newsom would declare the seat vacant and call a special election as early as March.
Seven close races could change the partisan makeup of the California Assembly.
Incumbent Republican Assemblymember Josh Hoover is running against Porsche Middleton, a Democrat, in a close race for this seat representing the suburbs east Sacramento. Two years ago, Hoover beat the incumbent Democrat, Ken Cooley. Middleton hopes to flip the seat again.
Voter registration: 37.5% Democratic, 33.1% Republican, 20.8% no party preference.
Campaign cash: Middleton: $1.8 million; Hoover: $2.4 million.
Democratic Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria was elected two years ago in this majority Latino district that runs along Highway 99 from Merced to Coalinga. But Republican Joanna Garcia Rose, a tax auditor, got more votes than her in the primary. Soria, however, has raised much more campaign cash than Garcia Rose.
Party registration: 40.8% Democratic, 28.8% Republican, 22.6% no party preference.
Campaign cash: Soria: $4.6 million; Garcia Rose: $1.3 million.
District 36
Longtime Democratic Assemblymember Eduardo Garcia decided not to run for reelection for this seat representing the Imperial Valley that was long assumed to be a safe Democratic stronghold. Republican Jeff Gonzalez surprised political insiders when he got substantially more primary votes than the next closest Democrat, Jose “Joey” Acuña Jr.
Party registration: 42.3% Democratic, 28.7% Republican, 21.6% no party preference.
Campaign cash: Acuna: $1.7 million; Gonzalez: $1.2 million.
First-term Democratic Assemblymember Pilar Schiavo is hoping to keep her seat representing the affluent northern suburbs of Los Angeles County. But the seat has changed hands in each of the past three elections. Republican Patrick Lee Gipson, a retired sheriff’s deputy, was just a few votes behind Schiavo in the primary.
Party registration: 41.3% Democratic, 30.0% Republican, 21.7% no party preference.
Campaign cash: Schiavo: $4 million; Gipson: $363,000.
District 47
First-term Republican Assemblymember Greg Wallis beat Democrat Christy Holstege by just 85 votes in 2022 in this district that includes Rancho Mirage and Palm Springs. She’s back for a rematch and has a large fundraising lead.
Party registration: 39.7% Democratic, 34.1% Republican, 17.9% no party preference
Campaign cash: Holstege: $3.6 million; Wallis: $2.7 million.
Republican Assemblymember Laurie Davies was first elected in 2020. Two years later, she won a close race against Democratic San Clemente city councilmember Chris Duncan. He’s back for a rematch in this tossup Oceanside-area district that has seen a sudden influx of campaign cash from gambling interests after Davies made a controversial vote on a gambling bill this summer. The California Cardroom Alliance has spent at least $1.26 million opposing Davies since September.
Party registration: 35% Democrat, 35.2% Republican, 21.7% no party preference.
Campaign cash: Duncan: $4.8 million; Davies: $3 million.
District 76
Termed-out San Diego Democratic Assemblymember Brian Maienschein was first elected as a Republican before he switched parties. Republican Kristie Bruce-Lane is hoping to switch the district back to a Republican one. She’s running against Darshana Patel, a Democrat, who placed second in the primary.
Party registration: 37.5% Democratic, 30.7% Republican, 24.7% no party preference.
Campaign cash: Patel: $5.14 million; Bruce-Lane $1.64 million.
CalMatters data reporter Jeremia Kimelman contributed to this story.
